In the SAFe framework, estimating and forecasting the Portfolio Backlog involves a rigorous process to ensure that Epics are ready for implementation with an appropriate level of discovery and risk. The statement that “Refinement is necessary when estimating the effort needed to implement an Epic†is true and aligns with the SAFe principles.
The Portfolio Backlog is a high-level Kanban system used to capture and manage business and enabler Epics intended to create and evolve the portfolio’s products, services, and solutions. Lean Portfolio Management (LPM) is responsible for developing, maintaining, and prioritizing the Portfolio Backlog. They collaborate with stakeholders to discover the Epics needed to advance the portfolio’s solutions1.
Refining the Portfolio Backlog to ensure readiness often involves the following activities:
Reviewing new Epics and determining their alignment with the portfolio’s strategic themes and vision.
Evaluating the Epic Hypothesis Statement to decide whether it warrants assignment to an Epic Owner.
Prioritizing the backlog using Weighted Shortest Job First (WSJF) and other factors in collaboration with Business Owners, Enterprise Architects, Product Management, and other stakeholders1.
This refinement process is essential for estimating the effort needed to implement an Epic accurately. It ensures that Epics are sufficiently understood and prepared before they enter the implementation phase. The refinement activities typically occur during the Portfolio Sync and the Strategic Portfolio Review events, where LPM and its stakeholders add new backlog items to the Funnel, update priorities, and remove less promising Epics1.
Therefore, refinement is a critical step in estimating and forecasting the Portfolio Backlog, as it helps in understanding the scope, impact, and effort required for each Epic, ensuring that they are ready for implementation and aligned with the strategic objectives of the organization.